I'm sorry I haven't been around lately. I promise I'll be more attentive from now on.
Quick rundown on what is fucked with the world:
US financial bailout:
Just like in the 20s with the lead up to the Great Depression, the powers that be have lead the greedy pigs to slaughter and now it's time to secure the Christmas ham. This was as much an accident as the 1939 invasion of Poland. The conspiracy nut in me says it was Bush's one last gift to the powers that put him in the white house, because you must admit, if you had seen this coming you would be in an amazing position to capitalise on it.
Current estimate put the losses at 1.5 trillion dollars. Losses my arse, it's just a transfer of capital. See who comes out on top after all of this, they should be first against the wall.
K-Rudd and Moneybags Turnbull:
It's funny to see the PM and the opposition leader have essentially the same opinion. I called it before, Rudd is more Liberal than most of the Libs. Kevin is a financial conservative, and Turnbull is the other side of the two headed coin. I've heard his [Turnbull's] deputies trying to get some political gain out of the financial metldown but you can see that Moneybags agrees with what the Government is doing.
God I wish so much that our political system had a 'time-out' button or something that would allow you to agree with what is being done by the PM (or opposition) without it causing you negative points. I think it would strengthen us as a nation.
US invades Syria:
In case you missed the news the US invaded the sovereign nation of Syria the other day. They flew in there with choppers, killed 10 or so Syrian nationals then kidnapped someone and buggered off. In response they said they had captured an insurgent involved in Syrian-Iraq border raids.
So there you have it, it is now legitimate to invade a sovereign nation and kill and kidnap its people so long as it is in the name of the war-on-terror, anti-terrorism or what ever the fuck you choose to call it. I say we hop over the pond and grab Richie McCaw. Only after I throw ten G's on the Wallabies that is. Fucking madness.
Ok, proper post soon I swear.
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20 comments:
You have no idea about financial systems. Bush just caught the falling knife.
The dismantling of the financial lending system has been going on since Ronald Reagan, who was the fortieth President of the United States (1981- 1989).
You are completely wrong about the transfer of wealth. Given the situation everyone has lost, stock market, housing market are all a combined reactions in prices going up every wins and so on. If the financial system crash who wins... no body... not even the banks and the proof is in the news, with banks folding..
Think about the following if you want to get educated and not make yourself look like a typical uneducated fool:
Take a look at this partial list of nations in big currency trouble as of now, all due to the rapidly deteriorating world financial/economic situation:
Argentina – Just nationalised the pension funds to help with their ongoing financial deficits, their stock and bonds are falling drastically – again.
Russia – Russian stocks collapse in recent weeks causing weekly market shut downs. The Ruble severely falls. Russian Oligarchs lose hundreds of billions in the stock crashes. The Russian central bank is using a great deal of foreign reserves to prop up Russian banks. There is actually talk of another Russian default in the future by credible media. Oligarchs have to repay $47 Billion in the next two months in various ways, and it’s doubtful they will be able to.
Iceland – In the midst of a drastically falling currency and literal bankruptcy as they guarantee all deposits in banks that had lent out many times the GDP of the entire country. They now cannot even import food without paying in advance in foreign currency.
China – This may be a ‘house of cards’ no one is really sure... but if you remember the Asian collapse was triggered by corruption and lies in the Banking Industry, which lead in turn to uncovering over inflated property prices? China has supported its economic growth by excessive lending to its industries over the last ten years and apparently hidden non performing loans. China has acted to prop its stock markets. If this is the case, then, China has a huge hidden banking crisis about to unfold. Year to Date, 50% of China toy manufactures are out of business. They couldn't even show the girl who was singing to the World and instead had to use a mimic... for the opening ceremony of the Olympics... and those 14 year old gymnasts... do you really want to trust China with it's 9% growth figure for this FY (especially when there are no ships moving in the oceans right now)?
Hungary – In the middle of a currency speculative attack as they try to deal with foreign exchange and the collapsing financial/credit markets.
Korea – Won falls 9% in a day as companies lose billons apiece in foreign exchange losses when their hedges against the USD turn south. Korea has foreign exchange problems amidst the disastrous credit markets. Doubts are now floating about how many developing and even developed trade partners of the West have enough foreign exchange reserves to defend their currencies.
And last but not least the US and Western Europe an unmitigated banking disaster, and it’s said that if the US did not take the huge steps to quasi nationalise the banks, the entire banking industry would have collapsed. These countries corporations are having to hoard cash to operate, whereas normally they use short term credit to fund payrolls, operations, etc. This lack of short term credit is a huge constriction on US and all Western economies right now. These same problems are now spilling over into Asia, once thought to be relatively immune.
Europe bought heavily in the bad financial paper emitted from the US (Fortis, Halifax Bank of Scotland, Hypo, Bank of Scotland, Commerzbank, and Deutsche Bank). Major EU banks have lent heavily to the developing Easter European regions, and now are on the hook for trillions.
Japan – Again falling into deflation which they never really exited since 1995.
So that’s a view of the world economic situation. In short, it’s not pretty. The only question now is when all the layoffs appear everywhere.
Ironically, the USD is benefitting from these crises. Since the resource correction this year, all the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and Australia have taken big hits. That is causing sell offs in AUD and emerging markets, which drives demand for USD that repatriates back to the US. Everyone worldwide wants USD as the markets deleverage.
Hedge funds and big money market funds are having huge redemptions (some are stopping redemptions to stop them from falling over). That drives demand for USD, stocks are falling and will continue to fall (with intermittent Bear Rallies like we will experience tonight). In short, as markets deleverage worldwide and there is flight to US Treasuries by all (and other good sovereign bonds) the demand for the USD rises.
Commodities fall drastically. Copper, the quintessential economic barometer, is way down for example. The resource investing mantra is old hat, last year’s story. If we have a real world depression (and it sure looks like it) then demand for the commodity sector falls drastically. The shipping indexes which indicate demand worldwide have halved or more. US trucking is way down. World economic demand is, well, collapsing.
And that collapsing demand is scaring the hell out of China and the rest of the Asian exporters.
As it becomes clear that the resource sector is collapsing because of falling world demand, the funds of all types get redemptions, and the sector falls (what was hot in the last 5 years?). That includes resource stocks, commodity futures and so on. Oil is also falling due to this bailing out by funds.
The Fund redemptions are so bad that the US just stated this week they will back them with an astonishing $540 billion to help them deal with redemptions so they don’t have to crash the markets! In Australia, Hedge Funds closed their doors so investors could not get their money out!
In short, every hot sector (Financials, Commodities, A-REITs etc) in the last 5 years is deleveraging and funds are being forced to liquidate due to redemptions. Everyone is or has going to cash.
Is that a more educated point of view, where do you get your information from ?? You seem to have the brain of a three year old.. what a joke...
signing off INVESTOR GURU... This blog is a waste of computer space..
Wow, that's the longest comment anyone has every made on here. Thanks.
I still say that it was all done by the shadowmen, possibly in collaboration with the Reptoids.
Maybe what Sam meant was this:
Merchant banker gets rich off trading money that does not really exist. Uses millions 'earned' to buy assets around world, let's say three mansions worth a total of $5million. Financial collapse. Loses bonuses but keeps job. Keeps mansions. Waits it out for three years. Still has job and mansions. Sells mansions for $10 million. Still a rich bastard.
The real losers are not countries, or governments, or banks, or companies. The rich guys feathered their nests years ago.
The losers are the poor bastards who didn't buy and sell imaginary money. They get to see one-quarter of their eranings (their tax) go to bailing these muppets out.
I'm sure my comment shows how facile my grasp of global finance is, but I think most people are awre of the fact that they are being dudded by the suits.
Oh, and how many other sovereign nations will George attack during his last three months? My money's on a cross-border raid into Iran before Christmas.
I love INVESTOR GURU. His comment (has to be a boy... probably irish boy at that...)was so long that I had 4 children and a good shit whilst trying to get through his palava.
My suggestion is that we all have an alcohol free day and eat a decent meal and try to be friendly. And everything.
Now I am going back to talk to my pesky bottle of red.
good to see a decent post by investor GURU...
As for the rest of the post on this site they are bursting with complete rubish, done by people out of touch with reality.
maybe one day there might be an intelligent and worthy dicussion occuring on this blog that resembles some intelligence.
I second that INVESTOR GURU!
Why are there so many people who think they're intelligent out there who are too scared to write their real name??????
Yeah, nothing enteledgeint going on in this blog, I hate it and I'd better not read it anymore... but I'll just post one more comment about how much I don't read it.
You love it.
yeah we are all anonymous....
shame sam... for developing such a boring blog and pitty that fact that you are unable to read.
Given the state of this blog, I hope it is not a reflextion of your life..
rubish topics , meaningless comments of no substance and very pour humour... nothing going on here that shows any potential.
best wishes to your entelligents. I hope thats how you spell it in your country...Maybe you should get a degree or some form of qualification.
Oh how I cry. Pour me.
Please continue to write comments on my blog about how meaningless the comments on my blog are.
I will....I now wait for your next entelligent topic. That I will pull apart given your lack of knowledge and ego driven opinion.
Wow, you're so full of hate for me. I've got to tell you, it's kind of turning me on. A/S/L?
I really don’t understand why this ‘anonymous’ person is choosing to bombard Sam’s blog with criticism.
There are countless other blogs out there, containing thoughtless, unmeasured comments about uninteresting topics, yet you choose to leave vitriolic comments here.
This is not a ‘boring blog’ as you have put it, otherwise you clearly wouldn’t waste your time reading it. It does not contain ‘rubish topics , meaningless comments of no substance and very pour humour...’. For the rest of Sam’s avid readers this is an interesting blog, which encourages healthy but respectful debate between intelligent people on current issues.
If you knew Sam you would realize that he is one of the least ignorant people on the face of the planet, and that every blog he compiles has been thoroughly researched and examined from every possible angle to ensure that the comments he is making are reasoned and fair.
If you hate this blog, and you hate what Sam is saying - why don’t you stop reading. Your comments are foul, uneducated and annoying and contribute nothing on an otherwise interesting site.
yeah he really researched his last topic.
The main issue with Sam's blog is that he is worried about being credible...
It smells of credibility issues.
If you honestly believe Sam's blog is credible you should really do you home work..
Yeah president Bush is responsible...for everything..I believe SAM...DO YOUR HOME WORK...
richo in lala land - you should get out of lala land, once in a while..... hahahhahahahah
I want to readd the blogg by anonymous. I bet it is an illoominating forum that makes compleatly correct and objectiv comment on pressing wurld isshues.
@INVESTOR GURU
Thanks for the informative post, pity about the attitude that went with it, but hey, educated doesn't mean nice.
Sam's assumption that 'money' cannot be destroyed is a pretty common one, most people would assume that the financial system is like gambling, with wealth moving up the chain towards the the people who are better at playing the odds.
If most people knew that the amount of available 'money' in the system was governed by the willingness of people to borrow to buy assets at inflated prices, and that cash could be destroyed simply by handing an asset back to the bank, they would think it was utter madness.
But to a more salient point, which is what Sam's blog post touchs on, those who end up with the assets at the end of the day have the keys to the kingdom when the ball starts rolling again. Those with the 'money' today, are going to have most of the assets tomorrow.
Given that we keep on hearing about the fact that the banks aren't passing along the cash that they are receiving, and that the big boys are still receiving the bonuses, I think it's fair to say when the market bottoms out, some of the cunts that brought about this crisis will be making out like bandits.
Investor Guru, for someone with an absolute wealth of knowledge about finance in all fields I find it very hard to take your initial statement that when financial systems crash no one wins.
I’ll give a few examples:
Those poor banks that can’t cover the short term debt get bought out by the banks that can, or the government and generally for a steal.
People who are patient with the share market buy up all the shares that everyone has lost there life savings on for a steal. Wait till things get better, then sell it to everyone before the market collapses again.
And I am sure you have heard of short selling, we can’t do that in oz anymore but again another way to make money in this financial collapse.
So someone’s making a load of money here. Hell I even made money in the share market last financial year during all the doom and gloom and I have no idea about half the things you’re talking about, nor do I care.
Additionally I don’t think Bush is responsible for any of this stuff, I really don’t think that he could be, he doesn’t have the intelligence. Others are responsible the ones pulling Bush’s strings, whoever that may be (possible the ones making all the money) and I do believe when Sam or others refer to Bush they are referring to the string pullers.
Thanks for playing on Sam’s blog, with all his friends.
Yeah Anon, go fuck yourself!
Plus I have finally written another post. Feel free to attack it with your poorly spelled hatred.
Anon, I can't work out why you are so upset, because you have an amazingly small penis or because ironically enough you ARE such a big fucking DICK?Perhaps it is because you might be Irish?Hell, that would upset me too.
Sam has a very interesting blog which I enjoy reading and as you can see others do too.
I do not like having to wade through your shitty fucking comments when reading my friend's interesting viewpoints.
Show us yer blog, you rude jismopper.
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